| Title: | Analysis of Long and Short Run Effects of Cereal Crops Yield on Food Security in Nigeria: 1981-2020 |
| Author(s): | Abu G. A., Umbugadu B. G., Abu O & Asogwa. B. C. |
| Abstract: | The study assessed the effects of cereal yield on food security in Nigeria in the long run and short run. The study adopted a longitudinal survey design using time series data spanning from 1981 to 2020. Data on rainfall were collected from the archives of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) while data on yields and prices were collected from the records of Food Agriculture Organization (FAO). Data for this study were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test (table 2) indicated that all the variables were found to be stationary on first differencing and Johansen co-integration mechanism indicated that there was co-integration among the variables. The result of VECM (table 5) showed that in the long run, a unit increase in maize yield will increase food insecurity by 4.790 units; a unit increase in rice yield will decrease food insecurity by 3.581 units; while a unit increase in sorghum yield decreased food insecurity by 0.469 units ceteris paribus. The study concludes that though the yields of selected cereal crops (maize, rice and sorghum) are low compared to world average, the crops possess enormous potentials and strong implications for both food security and food independence. The study therefore recommended that appropriate strategy aimed at improving cereal crop yield should be put in place to promote the desired growth in the cereal sector and enhance the availability and access to the selected cereals which in turn will lead to attainment of food security. |
| Keywords: | Cereal, Yield, Effect, Food, Security, VECM |
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